The Effects Of Balance Of Trade Surplus And Deficit On A Country’s Economy

INTRODUCTION

It is in no doubt that balance of trade which is sometimes symbolized as (NX) is described as the Difference between the monetary value of export and import of output in an economy over a certain period. It could also been seen as the relationship between the nation’s import and exports. When the balance has a positive indication, it is termed a trade surplus, i.e. if it consists of exporting more than is imported and a trade deficit or a trade gap if the reverse is the case. The Balance of trade is sometimes divided into a goods and a service balance. It encompasses the activity of exports and imports. It is expected that a country who does more of exports than imports stands a big chance of enjoying a balance of trade surplus in its economy more than its counterpart who does the opposite.

Economists and Government bureaus attempt to track trade deficits and surpluses by recording as many transactions with foreign entities as possible. Economists and Statisticians collect receipts from custom offices and routinely total imports, exports and financial transactions. The full accounting is called the ‘Balance of Payments’- this is used to calculate the balance of trade which almost always result in a trade surplus or deficit.

Pre-Contemporary understanding of the functioning of the balance of trade informed the economic policies of early modern Europe that are grouped under the heading ‘mercantilism’.

Mercantilism is the economic doctrine in which government control of foreign trade is of paramount importance for ensuring the prosperity and military security of the state. In particular, it demands a positive balance of trade. Its main purpose was to increase a nation’s wealth by imposing government regulation concerning all of the nation’s commercial interest. It was believed that national strength could be maximized by limiting imports via tariffs and maximizing export. It encouraged more exports and discouraged imports so as to gain trade balance advantage that would eventually culminate into trade surplus for the nation. In fact, this has been the common practice of the western world in which they were able to gain trade superiority over their colonies and third world countries such as Australia, Nigeria, Ghana, South Africa, and other countries in Africa and some parts of the world. This is still the main reason why they still enjoy a lot of trade surplus benefit with these countries up till date. This has been made constantly predominant due to the lack of technical-know how and capacity to produce sufficient and durable up to standard goods by these countries, a situation where they solely rely on foreign goods to run their economy and most times, their moribund industries are seen relying on foreign import to survive.

What is Trade Surplus?

Trade Surplus can be defined as an Economic measure of a positive balance of trade where a country’s export exceeds its imports. A trade surplus represents a net inflow of domestic currency from foreign markets and is the opposite of a trade deficit, which would represent a net outflow.

Investopedia further explained the concept of trade surplus as when a nation has a trade surplus; it has control over the majority of its currency. This causes a reduction of risk for another nation selling this currency, which causes a drop in its value, when the currency loses value, it makes it more expensive to purchase imports, causing an even a greater imbalance.

A Trade surplus usually creates a situation where the surplus only grows (due to the rise in the value of the nation’s currency making imports cheaper). There are many arguments against Milton Freidman’s belief that trade imbalance will correct themselves naturally.

What is Trade Deficit?

Trade Deficit can be seen as an economic measure of negative balance of trade in which a country’s imports exceeds its export. It is simply the excess of imports over exports. As usual in Economics, there are several different views of trade deficit, depending on who you talk to. They could be perceived as either good or bad or both immaterial depending on the situation. However, few economists argue that trade deficits are always good.

Economists who consider trade deficit to be bad believes that a nation that consistently runs a current account deficit is borrowing from abroad or selling off capital assets -long term assets-to finance current purchases of goods and services. They believe that continual borrowing is not a viable long term strategy, and that selling long term assets to finance current consumption undermines future production.

Economists who consider trade deficit good associates them with positive economic development, specifically, higher levels of income, consumer confidence, and investment. They argue that trade deficit enables the United States to import capital to finance investment in productive capacity. Far from hurting employment as may be earlier perceived. They also hold the view that trade deficit financed by foreign investment in the United States help to boost U.S employment.

Some Economists view the concept of trade deficit as a mere expression of consumer preferences and as immaterial. These economists typically equate economic well being with rising consumption. If consumers want imported food, clothing and cars, why shouldn’t they buy them? That ranging of Choices is seen as them as symptoms of a successful and dynamic economy.

Perhaps the best and most suitable view about Trade deficit is the balanced view. If a trade deficit represents borrowing to finance current consumption rather than long term investment, or results from inflationary pressure, or erodes U.S employment, then it’s bad. If a trade deficit fosters borrowing to finance long term investment or reflects rising incomes, confidence and investment-and doesn’t hurt employment-then it’s good. If trade deficit merely expresses consumer preference rather than these phenomena, then it should be treated as immaterial.

How does a Trade surplus and Deficit Arise?

A trade surplus arises when countries sell more goods than they import. Conversely, trade deficits arise when countries import more than they export. The value of goods and services imported more exported is recorded on the country’s version of a ledger known as the ‘current account’. A positive account balance means the nation carries a surplus. According to the Central Intelligence Agency Work fact book, China, Germany, Japan, Russia, And Iran are net Creditors Nations. Examples of countries with a deficit or ‘net debtor’ nations are United States, Spain, the United Kingdom and India.

Difference between Trade Surplus and Trade Deficit

A country is said to have trade surplus when it exports more than it imports. Conversely, a country has a trade deficit when it imports more than it exports. A country can have an overall trade deficit or surplus. Or simply have with a specific country. Either Situation presents problems at high levels over long periods of time, but a surplus is generally a positive development, while a deficit is seen as negative. Economists recognize that trade imbalances of either sort are common and necessary in international trade.

Competitive Advantage of Trade Surplus and Trade Deficit

From the 16th and 18th Century, Western European Countries believed that the only way to engage in trade were through the exporting of as many goods and services as possible. Using this method, Countries always carried a surplus and maintained large pile of gold. Under this system called the ‘Mercantilism’, the concise encyclopedia of Economics explains that nations had a competitive advantage by having enough money in the event a war broke out so as to be able to Self-sustain its citizenry. The interconnected Economies of the 21st century due to the rise of Globalization means Countries have new priorities and trade concerns than war. Both Surpluses and deficits have their advantages.

Trade Surplus Advantage

Nations with trade surplus have several competitive advantage s by having excess reserves in its Current Account; the nation has the money to buy the assets of other countries. For Instance, China and Japan use their Surpluses to buy U.S bonds. Purchasing the debt of other nations allows the buyer a degree of political influence. An October 2010 New York Times article explains how President Obama must consistently engage in discussions with China about its $28 Billion deficit with the country. Similarly, the United States hinges its ability to consume on China’s continuing purchase of U.S assets and cheap goods. Carrying a surplus also provides a cash flow with which to reinvest in its machinery, labour force and economy. In this regard, carrying a surplus is akin to a business making a profit-the excess reserves create opportunities and choices that nations with debts necessarily have by virtue of debts and obligations to repay considerations.

Trade Deficits Advantage

George Alessandria, Senior Economist for the Philadelphia Federal Reserve explains trade deficits also indicate an efficient allocation of Resources: Shifting the production of goods and services to China allows U.S businesses to allocate more money towards its core competences, such as research and development. Debt also allows countries to take on more ambitious undertakings and take greater risks. Though the U.S no longer produces and export as many goods and services, the nations remains one of the most innovative. For Example, Apple can pay its workers more money to develop the Best Selling, Cutting Edge Products because it outsources the production of goods to countries overseas.

LITERATURE REVIEW

In this chapter, efforts were made to explain some of the issues concerning balance of trade and trying to X-ray some of the arguments in favour of trade balances and imbalances with a view to finding answers to some salient questions and making for proper understanding of the concept of trade balances surplus and deficit which is fast becoming a major problem in the world’s economy today which scholars like John Maynard Keynes earlier predicted.

In a bid to finding a solution to this, we shall be discussing from the following sub-headings;

(a). Conditions where trade imbalances may be problematic.
(b). Conditions where trade imbalances may not be problematic.

2.1. Conditions where trade imbalances may be problematic

Those who ignore the effects of long run trade deficits may be confusing David Ricardo’s principle of comparative advantage with Adam Smith’s principle of absolute advantage, specifically ignoring the latter. The economist Paul Craig Roberts notes that the comparative advantage principles developed by David Ricardo do not hold where the factors of production are internationally mobile. Global labor arbitrage, a phenomenon described by economist Stephen S. Roach, where one country exploits the cheap labor of another, would be a case of absolute advantage that is not mutually beneficial. Since the stagflation of the 1970s, the U.S. economy has been characterized by slower GDP growth. In 1985, the U.S. began its growing trade deficit with China. Over the long run, nations with trade surpluses tend also to have a savings surplus. The U.S. generally has lower savings rates than its trading partners, which tend to have trade surpluses. Germany, France, Japan, and Canada have maintained higher savings rates than the U.S. over the long run.

Few economists believe that GDP and employment can be dragged down by an over-large deficit over the long run. Others believe that trade deficits are good for the economy. The opportunity cost of a forgone tax base may outweigh perceived gains, especially where artificial currency pegs and manipulations are present to distort trade.

Wealth-producing primary sector jobs in the U.S. such as those in manufacturing and computer software have often been replaced by much lower paying wealth-consuming jobs such as those in retail and government in the service sector when the economy recovered from recessions. Some economists contend that the U.S. is borrowing to fund consumption of imports while accumulating unsustainable amounts of debt.

In 2006, the primary economic concerns focused on: high national debt ($9 trillion), high non-bank corporate debt ($9 trillion), high mortgage debt ($9 trillion), high financial institution debt ($12 trillion), high unfunded Medicare liability ($30 trillion), high unfunded Social Security liability ($12 trillion), high external debt (amount owed to foreign lenders) and a serious deterioration in the United States net international investment position (NIIP) (-24% of GDP), high trade deficits, and a rise in illegal immigration.

These issues have raised concerns among economists and unfunded liabilities were mentioned as a serious problem facing the United States in the President’s 2006 State of the Union address. On June 26, 2009, Jeff Immelt, the CEO of General Electric, called for the U.S. to increase its manufacturing base employment to 20% of the workforce, commenting that the U.S. has outsourced too much in some areas and can no longer rely on the financial sector and consumer spending to drive demand.

2.2. Conditions where trade imbalances may not be problematic

Small trade deficits are generally not considered to be harmful to either the importing or exporting economy. However, when a national trade imbalance expands beyond prudence (generally thought to be several [clarification needed] percent of GDP, for several years), adjustments tend to occur. While unsustainable imbalances may persist for long periods (cf, Singapore and New Zealand’s surpluses and deficits, respectively), the distortions likely to be caused by large flows of wealth out of one economy and into another tend to become intolerable.
In simple terms, trade deficits are paid for out of foreign exchange reserves, and may continue until such reserves are depleted. At such a point, the importer can no longer continue to purchase more than is sold abroad. This is likely to have exchange rate implications: a sharp loss of value in the deficit economy’s exchange rate with the surplus economy’s currency will change the relative price of tradable goods, and facilitate a return to balance or (more likely) an over-shooting into surplus the other direction.

More complexly, an economy may be unable to export enough goods to pay for its imports, but is able to find funds elsewhere. Service exports, for example, are more than sufficient to pay for Hong Kong’s domestic goods export shortfall. In poorer countries, foreign aid may fill the gap while in rapidly developing economies a capital account surplus often off-sets a current-account deficit. There are some economies where transfers from nationals working abroad contribute significantly to paying for imports. The Philippines, Bangladesh and Mexico are examples of transfer-rich economies. Finally, a country may partially rebalance by use of quantitative easing at home. This involves a central bank buying back long term government bonds from other domestic financial institutions without reference to the interest rate (which is typically low when QE is called for), seriously increasing the money supply. This debases the local currency but also reduces the debt owed to foreign creditors – effectively “exporting inflation”

FACTORS AFFECTING BALANCE OF TRADE

Factors that can affect the balance of trade include;

1. The cost of Production, (land, labour, capital, taxes, incentives, etc) in the exporting as well as the importing economy.
2. The cost and availability of raw materials, intermediate goods and inputs.
3. Exchange rate movement.
4. Multi lateral, bi-lateral, and unilateral taxes or restrictions on trade.
5. Non-Tariff barriers such as environmental, Health and safety standards.
6. The availability of adequate foreign exchange with which to pay for imports and prices of goods manufactured at home.

In addition, the trade balance is likely to differ across the business cycle in export led-growth (such as oil and early industrial goods). The balance of trade will improve during an economic expansion.

However, with domestic demand led growth (as in the United States and Australia), the trade balance will worsen at the same stage of the business cycle.

Since the Mid 1980s, the United States has had a growth deficit in tradable goods, especially with Asian nations such as China and Japan which now hold large sums of U.S debts. Interestingly, the U.S has a trade surplus with Australia due to a favourable trade advantage which it has over the latter.

ECONOMIC POLICY WHICH COULD HELP REALISE TRADE SURPLUSES.

(a) Savings

Economies such as Canada, Japan, and Germany which have savings Surplus Typically runs trade surpluses. China, a High Growth economy has tended to run trade surpluses. A higher savings rate generally corresponds to a trade surplus. Correspondingly, the United States with a lower Savings rate has tended to run high trade deficits, especially with Asian Nations.

(b) Reducing import and increasing Export.

Countries such as the U.S and England are the major proponent of this theory. It is also known as the mercantile theory. A Practice where the government regulates strictly the inflow and outflow from the economy in terms of import and export. One major advantage of this theory is that it makes a nation self sufficient and has a multiplier effect on the overall development of the nation’s entire sector.

CRITICISMS AGAINST THE ECONOMIC POLICY OF SAVING AS A MEANS OF REALISING TRADE SURPLUS

Saving as a means of realizing trade surplus is not advisable. For example, If a country who is not saving is trading and multiplying its monetary status, it will in a long run be more beneficial to them and a disadvantage to a country who is solely adopting and relying on the savings policy as the it can appear to be cosmetic in a short term and the effect would be exposed when the activities of the trading nation is yielding profit on investment. This could lead to an Economic Tsunami.

CRITICISMS AGAINST THE ECONOMIC POLICY OF REDUCING IMPORTS AND INCREASING EXPORTS

A situation where the export is having more value on the economy of the receiving country just as Frederic Bastiat posited in its example, the principle of reducing imports and increasing export would be an exercise in futility. He cited an example of where a Frenchman, exported French wine and imported British coal, turning a profit. He supposed he was in France, and sent a cask of wine which was worth 50 francs to England. The customhouse would record an export of 50 francs. If, in England, the wine sold for 70 francs (or the pound equivalent), which he then used to buy coal, which he imported into France, and was found to be worth 90 francs in France, he would have made a profit of 40 francs. But the customhouse would say that the value of imports exceeded that of exports and was trade deficit against the ledger of France.

A proper understanding of a topic as this can not be achieved if views from Notable Scholars who have dwelt on it in the past are not examined.

In the light of the foregoing, it will be proper to analyze the views of various scholars who have posited on this topic in a bid to draw a deductive conclusion from their argument to serve a template for drawing a conclusion. This would be explained sequentially as follow;

(a) Frédéric Bastiat on the fallacy of trade deficits.
(b) Adam Smith on trade deficits.
(c) John Maynard Keynes on balance of trade.
(d) Milton Freidman on trade deficit.
(e) Warren Buffet on trade deficit.

3.1. Frédéric Bastiat on the fallacy of trade deficits

The 19th century economist and philosopher Frédéric Bastiat expressed the idea that trade deficits actually were a manifestation of profit, rather than a loss. He proposed as an example to suppose that he, a Frenchman, exported French wine and imported British coal, turning a profit. He supposed he was in France, and sent a cask of wine which was worth 50 francs to England. The customhouse would record an export of 50 francs. If, in England, the wine sold for 70 francs (or the pound equivalent), which he then used to buy coal, which he imported into France, and was found to be worth 90 francs in France, he would have made a profit of 40 francs. But the customhouse would say that the value of imports exceeded that of exports and was trade deficit against the ledger of France. looking at his arguments properly, one would say that it is most adequate to have a trade deficit over a trade surplus. In this Vain, it is glaringly obvious that domestic trade or internal trade could turn a supposed trade surplus into a trade deficit if the cited example of Fredric Bastiat is applied. This was later, in the 20th century, affirmed by economist Milton Friedman.

Internal trade could render an Export value of a nation valueless if not properly handled. A situation where a goods that was initially imported from country 1 into a country 2 has more value in country 2 than its initial export value from country 1, could lead to a situation where the purchasing power would be used to buy more goods in quantity from country 2 who ordinarily would have had a trade surplus by virtue of exporting more in the value of the sum of the initially imported goods from country 1 thereby making the latter to suffer more in export by adding more value to the economy of country 1 that exported ab-initio. The customhouse would say that the value of imports exceeded that of exports and was trade deficit against the ledger of Country 1. But in the real sense of it, Country 1 has benefited trade-wise which is a profit to the economy. In the light of this, a fundamental question arises, ‘would the concept of Profit now be smeared or undermined on the Alter of the concept of Trade surplus or loss? This brings to Mind why Milton Friedman stated ‘that some of the concerns of trade deficit are unfair criticisms in an attempt to push macro- economic policies favourable to exporting industries’. i.e. to give an undue favour or Advantage to the exporting nations to make it seem that it is more viable than the less exporting country in the international Business books of accounts. This could be seen as a cosmetic disclosure as it does not actually state the proper position of things and this could be misleading in nature.

By reduction and absurdum, Bastiat argued that the national trade deficit was an indicator of a successful economy, rather than a failing one. Bastiat predicted that a successful, growing economy would result in greater trade deficits, and an unsuccessful, shrinking economy would result in lower trade deficits. This was later, in the 20th century, affirmed by economist Milton Friedman.

3.2. Adam Smith on trade deficits

Adam Smith who was the sole propounder of the theory of absolute advantage was of the opinion that trade deficit was nothing to worry about and that nothing is more absurd than the Doctrine of ‘Balance of Trade’ and this has been demonstrated by several Economists today. It was argued that If for Example, Japan happens to become the 51st state of the U.S, we would not hear about any trade deficit or imbalance between America and Japan. They further argued that trade imbalance was necessitated by Geographical boundaries amongst nations which make them see themselves as competitors amongst each other in other to gain trade superiority among each other which was not necessary. They further posited that if the boundaries between Detroit, Michigan and Windsor, Ontario, made any difference to the residents of those cities except for those obstacles created by the Government. They posited that if it was necessary to worry about the trade deficit between the United States and Japan, then maybe it was necessary to worry about the deficits that exist among states. It further that stated that if the balance of trade doesn’t matter at the personal, Neighbourhood, or city level, then it does matter at the National level. Then Adams Smith was Right!.

They observed that it was as a result of the economic viability of the U.S that made their purchasing power higher than that its Asian counterpart who was Exporting more and importing less than the U.S and that it wouldn’t be better if the U.S got poorer and less ability to buy products from abroad, further stating that it was the economic problem in Asia that made people buy fewer imports.

“In the foregoing, even upon the principles of the commercial system, it was very unnecessary to lay extraordinary restraints upon the importation of goods from those countries with which the balance of trade is supposed to be disadvantageous. It obvious depicts a picture that nothing, however, can be more absurd than this whole doctrine of the balance of trade, upon which, not only these restraints, but almost all the other regulations of commerce are founded. When two places trade with one another, this [absurd] doctrine supposes that, if the balance be even, neither of them either loses or gains; but if it leans in any degree to one side, that one of them loses and the other gains in proportion to its declension from the exact equilibrium.” (Smith, 1776, book IV, ch. iii, part ii).

3.3. John Maynard Keynes on balance of trade

John Maynard Keynes was the principal author of the ‘KEYNES PLAN’. His view, supported by many Economists and Commentators at the time was that Creditor Nations should be treated as responsible as debtor Nations for Disequilibrium in Exchanges and that both should be under an obligation to bring trade back into a state of balance. Failure for them to do so could have serious economic consequences. In the words of Geoffrey Crowther, ‘if the Economic relationship that exist between two nations are not harmonized fairly close to balance, then there is no set of financial arrangement that Can rescue the world from the impoverishing result of chaos. This view could be seen by some Economists and scholars as very unfair to Creditors as it does not have respect for their status as Creditors based on the fact that there is no clear cut difference between them and the debtors. This idea was perceived by many as an attempt to unclassify Creditors from debtors.

3.4. Milton Freidman on trade deficit

In the 1980s, Milton Friedman who was a Nobel Prize winning Economist, a Professor and the Father of Monetarism contended that some of the concerns of trade deficit are unfair criticisms in an attempt to push macro- economic policies favourable to exporting industries.

He further argued that trade deficit are not necessarily as important as high exports raise the value of currency, reducing aforementioned exports, and vice versa in imports, thus naturally removing trade deficits not due to investment.

This position is a more refined version of the theorem first discovered by David Hume, where he argued that England could not permanently gain from exports, because hoarding gold would make gold more plentiful in England; therefore the price of English goods will soar, making them less attractive exports and making foreign goods more attractive imports. In this way, countries trade balance would balance out.

Friedman believed that deficits would be corrected by free markets as floating currency rates rise or fall with time to discourage imports in favour of the exports. Revising again in the favour of imports as the currency gains strength.

But again there were short comings on the view of Friedman as many economists argued that his arguments were feasible in a short run and not in a long run. The theory says that the trade deficit, as good as debt, is not a problem at all as the debt has to be paid back. They further argued that In the long run as per this theory, the consistent accumulation of a major debt could pose a problem as it may be quite difficult to pay offset the debt easily.

Economists in support for Friedman suggested that when the money drawn out returns to the trade deficit country

3.5. Warren Buffet on trade deficit

The Successful American Business Mogul and Investor Warren Buffet was quoted in the Associated Press (January 20th 2006) as saying that ‘The U.S trade deficit is a bigger threat to the domestic economy than either the federal budget deficit or consumer debt and could lead to political turmoil… Right now, the rest of the world owns $3 trillion more of us than we own of them’. He was further quoted as saying that ‘in effect, our economy has been behaving like an extraordinary rich family that possesses an immense farm. In order to consume 4% more than we produce-that is the trade deficit- we have day by day been both selling pieces of the farm and increasing the mortgage on what we still own.

Buffet proposed a tool called ‘IMPORT CERTIFICATES’ as a solution to the United States problem and ensure balanced trade. He was further quoted as saying; ‘The Rest of the world owns a staggering $2.5 trillion more of the U.S than we own of the other countries. Some of this $2.5 trillion is invested in claim checks- U.S bonds, both governmental and private- and some in such assets as property and equity securities.

Import Certificate is a proposed mechanism to implement ‘balanced Trade’, and eliminate a country’s trade deficit. The idea was to create a market for transferable import certificate (ICs) that would represent the right to import a certain dollar amount of goods into the United States. The plan was that the Transferable ICs would be issued to US exporters in an amount equal to the dollar amount of the goods they export and they could only be utilized once. They could be sold or traded to importers who must purchase them in order to legally import goods to the U.S. The price of ICs are set by free market forces, and therefore dependent on the balance between entrepreneurs’ willingness to pay the ICs market price for importing goods into the USA and the global volume of goods exported from the US (Supply and Demand).

Trading Like a Pro

Preparation for day trading like a pro

Plan your trade and trade your plan. The first step in day “trading like a pro” is the preparation. This involves, the financial instruments to trade and the strategies of best entry point, trade management, risks control and money management. No serious day trader will ever enter a trade without first checking the economic news. It is important to know the time and the day of all important economic news before considering to enter a trade. Only careless traders disregard economic news. You can check economic at Yahoo/finance, Google/finance and at MSN/money. You will then decide what to trade based on fundamentals or on technical analysis.

As a day trader, you will respect the opening bell of London at 3 am eastern time, 8 am London time and the New York opening bell at 09.30 am eastern time, 14.30 London time. You will wait for the opening bell before placing any trades. After the preparation, there are eight steps for day “trading like a pro”.

First step after day trading preparation: 5% rule

It is important to understand at early stage that, day trading involves risks. No trading decision is risks free and will contain some elements of risks. Traders must protect their trading capital at all cost. One simple rule of money management and risks control is to use only five per cent of your trading account. If you open five trades, the total amount of money allocated to those five trades should not exceed five per cent of your trading account. When you reach the five cent, you do not place any more trades.

Second step in day trading like a pro

Very often, traders will trade during the London session, the New York session and the Asian session. It is common to miss a good night sleep, and to trade without pause. The main issue in this case is the over trading. For every trade, traders must pay their due to their brokers in the form of commissions. It is important to control the number of trades that you are taking to avoid paying too much in commissions. In order to avoid taking useless trades for the pleasure of being in a trade, traders should always ask this question: is it worthy being in this trade? The expected reward must exceed at least twice the risk. The risk-reward ratio must always be considered before entering the trade.

Third step in day trading like a pro

When you buy or sell when it is time to buy or sell at the right place, that is a win. On the other hand, when you sell or buy at the wrong time and at the wrong place, that is a loss. The ability to make excellent decisions quickly and to decipher the language of the price or the language of the momentum indicators will allow a day trader to trade like a pro. Day trading is a serious competition similar to American football or rugby. When one is buying another is selling. Therefore, one should use the right strategy for each trading challenge. Using trending strategies during trending period and range trading strategy during low volatility period.

Step four in day trading like a pro

Using indicators in day trading One of the reasons why traders fail in day trading is because they misuse or misunderstand the indicators. Many indicators are just repeating the patterns of the price. In fact they are different version of the price. No indicators can ever replace the price, the number one indicator.

The price is the universal language of all traders and does not hide anything. Traders must keep their eyes wide open and try to understand what the price is revealing. There are many indicators but the price remain the same. The best approach when day trading like a pro is to look at the price first before looking the indicators. Next look again at the price before entering the trade.

It is important for traders to learn to master every indicator that they are using and to become fluent in the language of the price. If one has to sell at every overbought slow stochastic and buy at every oversold slow stochastic, the market will never trend. The misuse of the slow stochastic has caused traders more losses than any other indicator. Day trading is different from gambling and gambling is different from day trading like a pro.

Please trade like a pro or learn to trade like pro.

Step five in day trading like a pro

The understanding of stable datum in the market

“A stable data is a truth, it is a constant. A stable data is something that remains intact even in a chaotic environment”.

There are many stable datum in the market. The Fibonacci retracements and projections, the Elliott wave theory, higher time frame controls all lower time frames, the market patterns (not chart patterns) and more.

One of the mistakes that the unaware traders are making is to use indicators or any other trading tools without paying attention to the stable datum in the market. Trading decisions made together with stable datum will allow traders to achieve consistent winning trades. Very often traders will violate stable datum in the market, only to lose serious amount of money.

During the third Elliott wave in the uptrend, unaware traders, will be busy selling, because many indicators are giving signals to sell, when smart money is busy buying. This simple ignorance of the stable data of Elliott wave theory will cost traders money. In a downtrend, during the third Elliott wave, when the smart money is busy selling, traders who are trading the indicators, instead of trading the price, and violating all stable datum of the market will very often fail to capitalize on the opportunity to sell, or to increase their profit, but instead will lose money. Another stable data in the market is the market patterns, not chart patterns.

Market patterns are: Trend – Pause – Trend. The market will trend, the market will pause (consolidation period or low volatility period) and the market will trend again.

The ability to master the market patterns will allow traders to design the right and best strategy in achieving consistent winning trades. Valid tested and retested trending strategies are for periods of market imbalances On the other hand, balance market rules of entry and exit are for balance markets.

As, you can see, the knowledge, the understanding and the correct application of the stable datum in the market can not be avoided. 

Step six in day “trading like a pro”

The time and the place of the trade

Very often traders will know if the price will go down or up but they will be wrong about the time and the place. When and where to enter the trade successfully. The difference between a consistent winning trader and a consistent generous loser is the ability to recognize the time and the place to enter the trade. Using a higher time frame with a lower time frame, will allow traders to enter the trade at the right time. However, the understanding of the language of the price is the key to best entry point. Two questions traders should always asked are:

Is it the best time to enter the trade?

Is this the best place to enter the trade?

This is about locating valid “hot spot trading zones”

It is common to receive a valid trade signal at the wrong time and at the wrong place but smart traders will wait for the price to reach the best entry point before entering the trade. A typical example of this is a sell or buy signal within the Bollinger band (50,2). These imperfections are usually rectified by the market when the price is quickly push to the edge of the Bollinger (50,2). Usually, unaware traders will lose. In order to achieve consistent winning trades, it is important to enter the trade at the right time and at the right place.

Step seven in day “trading like a pro”

The discipline

The first step in becoming a discipline trader is the willingness. Serious traders will at one stage discover the root of their failure. After losing abundantly and consistently, after an honest analysis of their trading circumstances, they will find out that, lack of discipline is hindering their progress and will be willing to take the right steps. That realization and willingness are the first steps in adopting a professional approach to trading.

Three things are important

1/ The first is excellent money management plan

2/ The second is a tested and retested “valid trading system”

3/ The third is self control.

One of the simplest but powerful money management rules is: never ever expose more than five per cent of your trading account to risks at any one time. Never ever. You can promise us that, you will be discipline enough to follow this simple money management rule. If you place ten trades, the total amount of those ten trades must not exceed five per cent of your whole trading account. And when you spend the five per cent, you will wait until you close some trades or you make more money before initiating another trade.

No one else will do it for you. The choice and the decision are yours

There are hundreds of trading systems but few can stand the heat of day trading like a pro. A valid trading system includes at least one stable datum and gives priority to the price, the number one indicator. Traders know that, we are trading the price not the indicators. A valid trading system is a trading tool, but like every other tool, one must learn to master it and become fluent in using it. It is not sufficient to have a valid trading system but to know and to understand how to use it. This requires total discipline. Very often traders will go from one system to the next system without achieving consistency. Some traders will not test the system before hand or will fail to familiarize themselves with the system. All professional traders have their trading systems which they have tested, retested and understand. Professional traders do follow their trading systems religiously but not blindly. Trading systems are essential in day trading and will assist traders in trading like a pro. However no trading system will ever replace a trader. A trader without a valid trading system is usually inconsistent in his or her decisions. Examples of trading systems that work are “TSTW24”, “TSTW SYS 08”.

Please note that not all trading systems are valid trading systems. A valid trading system must incorporate the price, and at least one stable datum. And a trading system is not a trading robot. Traders must always be responsible for all their trading decisions.

Self control and day “trading like a pro”

Knowing what type of trader you are is the beginning of self control in trading. Are you an aggressive trader? Are you an impatient trader or an emotional trader? Are you an irresponsible trader, a serious trader or a courageous trader? Will you consider yourself as a stubborn or a careless trader? It does not matter what type of trader you are, the market will make you humble until you learn to control yourself. It is not enough to know what type of trader you are but to recognize clearly your weaknesses and your strength. You will take a piece of paper and write in two columns, your weaknesses and your strength. The purpose of this exercise is to discover the root of your failure and handle it once and for all. Please note that there is a clear divergence between solving a problem and handling a problem. Please refer to our previous article about handling a problem. Once, you know the mistakes that you are repeating, you will do your best to actually stop repeating the same mistakes or seek a professional assistance. What you are trying to do, is to take control of yourself and your actions instead of going round and round aimlessly. We count you to do it properly and to start enjoying your trades, instead of enduring your trades. As we have said before trading can be enjoyed but you will have to control yourself and your actions.

Step eight in day trading like a pro: Understanding and enjoyment

Trading is not for fun or for excitement only but for financial gains. This is the reward of the work well done. The key for consistent reward is the understanding of the market. Anyone can take money out of the market here and there but to be able to achieve consistent winning trades and start enjoying trading, requires total understanding of the market. This is about understanding other participants in the market, the price, the financial instruments and the trading tools. This understanding will allow the trader to recognize clearly the place and the time to enter the trade. As the trader becomes one with the market, so to speak, he or she can at any time recoup previous losses. Not only did the trader has developed the mindset of a professional trader but he or she has matured as a leading player in trading the market, capable to control the outcomes of his trades. This is the final step in day trading like a pro.

Trading must be enjoyed and can be enjoyed but the enjoyment does not come through passive and careless trading attitude. It will come through practice and understanding.

Whatever, you do, wherever you are, enjoy yourself and be very happy. We wish you the very best in your trading. We hope you will find this article useful and that you will put it into practice in order to day “trade like a pro”.

Online Forex Day Trading The Tao Of Rapid Wealth Creation And Perpetuation

Foreign currency trading is the most profitable and powerful way to make money today in the world.

It is a 2.5 trillion dollars daily global market and business.

For this reason the knowledge and the secrets of how to do it successfully have been kept away from the public for thousands of years.

This is because it is the jealously guarded “SECRET” of how the “Money and Power” Elites, the multi-national and multi-billion dollars corporations, largest banks and governments of the world, the “Movers & Shakers” of International Banking & Finance, Business moguls & Tycoons, CEOs of major Corporations, secret societies and the privileged blue bloodlines of the Wealthiest Families of Europe and the Americas make their money and get rich.

They create vast fortunes easily trading foreign currencies.

Thereafter, using this great wealth, they create factories to manufacture consumer goods and products and hire you, Joe Bloke to work in those factories, banks and jobs at minimum wages.

So, it is no wonder why they don’t want you to know about the REAL TRUTH and “SECRET” on how to generate great wealth through foreign currency trading.

If you know how to trade foreign currency and generate $100,000 monthly for life, will you be idiotic, naïve and crazy to go to work at these DEAD END jobs to earn minimum wages and be paid nickels and dimes?

So, there has been a persistent organized campaign by the powers that be, the Money Elite to KEEP AWAY AND HIDE these “SECRETS” of creating vast wealth from foreign currency trading.

That is why they are always floating false propaganda and negative campaign in the mass media that currency trading is risky and you should not do it because you’ll lose all your money.

If you go to your bank manager or money management advisor or investment management company and tell them that you wish to make money at home from online currency trading, they will scream at you and try to discourage you and frighten you with the false information and half truth that it is risky and that you’ll lose your money.

This is because it is THE SECRET with which they make money and get rich!

Citibank alone makes $20 billion dollars trading currencies yearly.

Most banks, including your bank trade currencies and it is among the major ways to create income.

It is just that they don’t advertise this secret.

George Soros, the King of forex trading makes billions of dollars yearly trading currencies!

It is reported that a few years ago, he nearly caused the government of Thailand to go bankrupt because he made so much money trading their currency!

Yes, foreign currency exchange trading or forex trading can be risky.

It is true, you can lose your shirt and go bankrupt.

But this is half of the truth.

The other half of the truth is that if you buy and study a good forex currency trading e-book guide or program and understand how it works, avoid the pitfalls and get to know the secrets of risk management and trade with discipline, you can get fabulously rich so fast it will make your head spin round and put the devil to shame.

This is why there is an organized campaign to discredit online currency trading.

If you get rich so fast, then you’ll not need to depend on the “Money and Power” Elites and their jobs and welfare system where they allow you nickels and dimes to keep you subjugated.

If you get rich too fast, they will no longer be able to manipulate you into voting and keeping them in power to continue milking your life by making you labor and work yourself to death making them rich.

There are so many reasons why most beginners in foreign currency trading fail to earn money and instead lose all their savings.

When they first hear about how easy and fast it is making money from day trading currency, they search the internet and find a forex trading broker.

Then they open a currency trading account and put in a few thousands of dollars in the online currency trading account and immediately begin to try to earn money from online currency trading.

And they get entangled in all the foreign currency trading sophisticated strategies and systems of technical and fundamental analysis such as reading “Forex charts”, “Moving Averages”, “Elliot wave”, “Stochastics”, “Bollinger bands”, “Directional movement index”, “Trend and Oscillator indicators”, “Fibonacci retracements and others.

They spend all day and night listening to business news on radio, reading forex newsletters, forex articles in magazines and watching business news on TV

These beginners don’t take their time to buy a valid online currency trading e-book guide to study and understand the forex market and the currency trading “SECRETS” before they begin trading.

They don’t open the free demo trial forex trading account to practice for free to develop viable profitable currency trading skills first before they open a paid forex trading account to begin trading and making real money.

They make the fatal and dumb mistake of trying to fly in the world of foreign currency trading market before they learn how to crawl.

So, they get confused, make grievous foreign currencies trading errors and lose their money.

When they lose their money, they will not accept responsibility because that is the difficult part.

The easy thing to do is to blame their mistakes on online currency trading and to declare and gripe that it is risky and a scam designed to con the unsuspecting public.

This gives them the justification to begin filing false complaints and instigating legal action with the lame excuse that they were naïve and didn’t know the risk involved and so have been ripped off.

The truth is that there are at least one million people around the world who have foreign currency trading skills and do it well to make millions of dollars monthly!

Yes, sometimes they will lose.

But most of the time they are fabulously profitable.

I once read about a taxi cab driver from New York who started trading foreign currencies about 10 yrs ago.

While driving his taxi cab, occasionally during his lunch break, he will log into his forex trading account and enter a few currency trades.

By the end of his driving day shift, he would check his online currency trading account and was always surprised to find that for a few minutes of trading currencies, he had made more money that day in minutes than he made driving the cab for a whole month.

This encouraged him to stop driving the taxi cab and to begin trading currencies full time.

In 10 years, he made $4 billion dollars ($4,000,000,000) trading foreign currencies online and was listed in Forbes Magazine’s 400 richest Americans!

He is just one out of the many average people all over the world who took the time to study online currency trading, understood it and trade it correctly and are making millions of dollars without any hard work.

You too can do the same.

It is simple.

If you can click your mouse once to buy the currency and in a few minutes click your mouse a second time to sell them, you can make money.

It is a no brainer. Even a caveman can do it!

So, foreign currency trading is not difficult to understand or to do like stock or bond or commodity trading.

If you know where to get a good and valid forex trading guide or e-book and be patient to spend 1 hr daily to study it to understand the foreign currency trading market, how to click your mouse to buy and sell the currency; and if you will be patient to do the free demo trial for a few months before you open a paid forex trading account to begin trading, you can get obscenely and insanely rich so fast, it will make your eyes want to pop out, seeing all the piles of cash you generate just by clicking your mouse twice for a few minutes daily!

One powerful secret that will help you as a beginner is to avoid hiring money managers at the beginning to trade currencies for you.

The reason is that 90% of these money managers who advertise with highly impressive websites and brochures and also in TV infomercials and radios and seminars are fraudulent.

When you hire them to trade for you, they will over trade your account (churning) so as to generate a lot of trading fees for themselves because whether they make money for you or not, you must pay them their fees.

The more they trade your account, the more fees they generate for themselves!

By over trading your forex currency account, they expose it to massive risk which will eventually lead you to lose a lot of money.

This is because there are certain days and times which are profitable to trade and there are some days and times which are not.

Therefore by over trading (churning) your currency trading account, they get rich at your expense.

Plus, some of them will even use some profits they generated from trading your account to trade for themselves and make themselves rich without you knowing what is going on.

As if that is not bad enough, some will entice you to trade on margin. This means that they will loan you money to trade.

But the trick is that they are loaning you digital money which is created from the air and has no value.

All they do is go to your account and enter any amount of money they wish to loan you. (They don’t actually put real money into your currency trading account!)

This is not real money because it is just digital artificial numbers.

But if you use this fake funny digital money to trade and lose, then you’ll owe them real money!

You’ll be required to pay them with real money!

And if you fail to pay them, they can freeze your bank accounts, assets and homes to collect the debt.

This is how most of these brokers get rich at the expense of naïve beginners in online foreign currency trading.

So, if you’re a beginner, avoid hiring money managers to trade for you at the beginning. Stay away from managed trading.

Instead learn to trade and after you have made at least $500,000, contact us to give you the list of the best and honest money managers in the world (as well as the best forecasting services) who can trade for you and make you richer.

There is another fraud which some money managers perpetrate.

After you open a paid online currency trading account and put in thousands of dollars in there for them to trade for you, they use your money to trade for themselves.

Then they use a computer software to generate a fake forex trading account statement for your forex trading account which will show that you’ve lost money.

There is no way most people will find out, because you can’t access their trading activities.

And sometimes even when you find a honest and reputable money manager to trade for you, when your account becomes profitable and you request to withdraw some of the money, they will begin to give you a run around, excuses and try to discourage you from withdrawing the money.

If you persist, you’ll find out that suddenly your account will begin to lose money because they have softwares to manipulate it and generate dubious account statements to make it seem as if you’ve been losing money!

Above all, most beginners in forex currency trading fail to earn money because they spend too much time in doing complicated forex mathematics, reading charts, listening to business news on radio, TV and reading too many forex newsletters and magazine articles, which are conflicting, confusing, time consuming and counter productive.

They spend so much time over stuffing themselves with forex trading news and information that they become constipated with information and overwhelmed and so have little or no time to actually click their mouse to buy and sell the currencies and make money.

Most beginners also are unable to find and use a good currency trading system and software.

Some of them are even conned into buying outrageously expensive trading softwares and system for $4000 from some companies who advertise on TV infomercials late at nights.

They don’t know that they can get the same forex trading system and softwares for free online at the websites of some forex trading companies!

These $4000 softwares are not for beginners and when we checked them out, we found they are complicated and not easy to use.

Infact after you manage to master how to use it, they will not help you to make more money!

So, it is not wise squandering your hard earned $4000 to buy them.

If these over priced worthless forex trading softwares work as they are advertised in seminars and infomercial, the companies will not be selling them.

Instead they will keep them secret and use them to make billions of dollars.

If you wake up tomorrow and discover you have a goldmine underneath your house, will you go out and advertise in TV infomercials and radios and seminars to sell your house for $4000???

The truth is that most of these infomercial advertising forex companies don’t really trade currencies. They are just sales people. Shysters. Tricksters.

They make their money by peddling worthless forex trading softwares to the naïve beginners for $4000.

When you check one of these companies out (one of them has the audacity to call their worthless software “Forex Made Easy”), you’ll discover that the CEO of this company actually admitted that not only that he does NOT use his $4000 software to trade but he knows nothing about trading currencies!

He only lends his name to his company to use to market their worthless foreign currency trading software.

The company’s pitchman who conducts the seminar is a sales man and he also doesn’t trade currencies because he had committed fraud in the past and was barred from trading commodities.

While the CEO of the company runs infomercial and seminars peddling worthless forex trading software for $4000, he doesn’t use it and doesn’t trade currencies.

Instead he hired a money manager who trades the currencies for him!

So, if you’re a beginner who desires to get rich fast from currency trading, you must know these insiders’ “SECRETS” of currency trading market and the pitfalls and how to avoid all the fraudulent companies peddling worthless forex trading e-books, books, softwares, systems and complicated trading strategies.

There are millions of them.

Beware because they are smooth operators who are very skilled in salesmanship and who can easily dazzle you with their big refined nonsensical English and so con you.

There are billions of dollars to be made in foreign currency trading and you can get abundantly rich trading these currencies online from home or office starting small.

But you must locate and buy a valid foreign currency trading e-book guide.

You must study it and understand it.

You must try the free demo account trading and do well in it before you can open a paid forex trading account to actually begin making real money.

You must begin by trading only one or two currencies at the beginning.

With time as you acquire more skills, you may trade more currencies.

You must learn how to trade with discipline and learn the BEST DAYS AND HRS to trade to be profitable and the other times when YOU MUST NOT TRADE to avoid losing money.

You must know how to “go long” or “short” on a currency, how to enter “Market Order”, “Limit Order”, “Stop Order”, “OCO order” and “Entry Order”.

If you learn how to do Online currency trading hedging, it will help you to maximize your profits.

You must be disciplined and avoid emotional currency trading.

When you make a reasonable amount of money for the day, stop trading because you can’t be profitable at all times of the day and if you don’t stop and take your profit, you may end up losing all the money you made.

Above all don’t open a paid currency day trading account and trade until you have done the free trial demo account trading for a few months and mastered it.

At the beginning, keep your trading strategies simple.

Avoid complications and advanced trading strategies of technical and fundamental analysis because these are the reasons why 90% of beginners lose money.

Use a simple trading strategy to get rich at the beginning.

Afterwards you may then take advanced forex trading courses and do technical, fundamental analysis and use forecasting services to make even more profits and get richer, making millions of dollars effortlessly.

If you’re serious in learning all the insiders’ “SECRETS” about how to make millions of dollars trading foreign currencies online, without selling your soul to the devil and without losing your shirt, you must get our powerful currency trading e-book which reveals a very simple and yet profitable and powerful trading strategy which is guaranteed to make you $100,000 monthly for life from home or office.

You can learn to get rich from the jealously guarded foreign currency trading “SECRETS” of the “Money and Power” Elites, the multi-national and multi-billion dollars corporations, largest banks and governments of the world, the “Movers & Shakers” of International Banking & Finance, Business moguls & Tycoons, CEOs of major Corporations, secret societies and the privileged blue bloodlines of the Wealthiest Families of Europe and the Americas.

With the millions of dollars which you make from foreign currency trading, you’ll be free like a bird to buy a mansion, with the most lavish and expensive furnishings, jewelry, antiques, electronics, a 50ft yacht, dream luxury cars, pick your choice: Lexus X470, $44,000 Jaguar 2007 S type, Silver Porsche Carrera, $180,000 Ferrari Testarossa, Mercedes 2007 Model S Class, 2007 Rolls Royce Silver Seraph, Bentley Mulsanne S, $220,000 Bentley Arnage Silver Tempest or a flaming red Lamborghini Jalpa!

You can make all your dreams in life to come true, without any hard work!

May these insights into foreign currency online investing, foreign currency trading program, investing online, forex trading, day trading, online trading e-book, day trading online, day trading system, day trading course, day trading future, forex day trading, day trading book, day trading firm, day trading training, currency day trading, online future trading, online currency trading, online forex trading, online commodity trading, online currency trading system, currency forex online trading, online trading course, online trading education, trading, online trading investing, forex, forex trading, forex broker, forex market, forex trading system, forex news, forex trader, forex signal, forex trading, online forex, trade forex, forex quote, forex education help you make millions of dollars and to achieve your life’s ambitions and dreams.

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